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Macro Roundup (Nov 14)
Nov 14,2018 09:11CST
data analysis
A roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today

SHANGHAI, Nov 14 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index stemmed its increase on Tuesday after the euro and pound gained on hopes in discussions over the Italian budget and Brexit. 

The Italian government will submit a new budget to the European Commission today, while UK Prime Minister Theresa May hinted that her cabinet could reach an agreement on Brexit within 48 hours. 

Prime Minister May said on Tuesday that a "small number of outstanding issues" remain to be hammered out. One of those issues, the Irish border, appears far from agreement. 

Italy will stick with its proposal and 2.4% budget deficit target, as well as an assumption of 1.5% GDP growth, according to a Bloomberg report.

Base metals rose for the most part as LME lead led the gains and closed 1.63% higher. LME zinc jumped 0.24%, tin grew 0.21%, copper rose 0.1%, while aluminium and nickel inched down. SHFE copper, zinc and aluminium nudged up, while nickel fell 1.09%, tin lost 0.44%, and lead went down slightly. 

China’s broad M2 money supply grew 8% in October from a year earlier, matching a record low this June. Analysts had expected M2 to rise 8.4%.

The total social financing (TSF) also dropped to 728.8 billion yuan, compared to the 1,300 billion yuan expected. 

Combined trust loans, entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers' acceptances, which are common forms of shadow banking finance, fell by 267.5 billion yuan in October, following a slide of 2.3 trillion yuan in the first nine months.

A reason for the decline was that local governments had maxed out their bond quotas after a rush of debt issuance in the third quarter, Capital Economics said.

Investors do not expect the German economy to recover rapidly from a weak patch, the ZEW research institute said on Tuesday, adding that its monthly survey pointed to a subdued third quarter.

The survey showed economic sentiment among investors in Europe’s biggest economy rising slightly to -24.1 in November from -24.7 in October. 

ZEW said the survey reflected recent figures for industrial production, retail sales and foreign trade in Germany and pointed towards weak growth in the third quarter. It added that expectations for the next six months show no improvement.

"This means that, at the moment, they (survey participants) do not expect to see a speedy recovery of the currently weak development of the economy," said ZEW President Achim Wambach in a statement.

Day ahead

China will release investment data on Wednesday along with industrial output and retail sales. Other key economic data to watch today include the eurozone GDP for the third quarter and the US consumer price index (CPI) for October. 


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