Macro Roundup (Oct 31)

SHANGHAI, Oct 31 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index rose to the highest thus far this year on Tuesday, amid growing signs the US economy is outperforming its peers.

US consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high in October, driven largely a robust labour market, suggesting strong economic growth could persist in the near term. That follows last week's data that showed the US economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter.

The Conference Board said that its US-based consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 137.9 this month, the highest since September 2000, from a downwardly revised 135.3 in September.

Most LME and SHFE base metals ended in negative territory overnight with LME zinc being the biggest loser, down some 2.5% on the day. LME copper dropped 1.66%, lead fell close to 0.9%, aluminium slid some 0.7% and tin dipped 0.05% while nickel inched up 0.21%.

SHFE copper slipped 1.77%, zinc decreased more than 1.6%, lead sank close to 0.9%, nickel lost over 0.4% and aluminium fell 0.35% while tin stayed flat.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission on Tuesday said that it would improve market liquidity and encourage more long-term capital into the market. The securities regulator also said it will encourage share buybacks and mergers and acquisitions by listed firms, reduce unnecessary interference in trading, and create a level playing ground for investors. Mainland Chinese stocks rebounded following such supportive comments.

Eurozone growth slowed sharply in the third quarter as new emissions tests hit German car production and the Italian economy stagnated amid a standoff with Brussels over its national budget.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the bloc increased by 0.2% from the end of June, undershooting the expectations that the single currency area would maintain the 0.4% pace of economic growth experienced during the second quarter of the year.

The annual pace of GDP growth was also slower than anticipated, at 1.7% during the three months to September against expectations for a 1.8% rise. It was 2.2% in the second quarter, revised up from the 2.1% initial reading for that period.

The flash data published on Tuesday follow sluggish growth figures from the eurozone’s third-largest economy, Italy, which recorded no quarterly GDP growth in the third quarter.

German inflation accelerated to the fastest since February 2012. Consumer prices rose an annual 2.4% in October, compared with 2.2% in September.

The inflation figures chimed with data released earlier on Tuesday that showed Germany’s jobless total fell in October and employment hit a record high in September, underlining the strength of a labour market that is supporting a consumer-led upswing in Europe’s largest economy.

The eurozone economic sentiment index slid to 109.8 in October from 110.9 a month ago. The drop in euro-area sentiment was caused by weaker confidence in industry, services and, particular, retail trade.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US crude supplies rose by 5.69 million barrels for the week ended October 26. The institute reported a buildup of 9.88 million barrels in the oil inventories for the previous week.

The API data also showed supply declines of 3.46 million barrels for gasoline and 3.08 million barrels for distillates

Day ahead

China will release its official October purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector today.

Economic data slated for release today also include Germany’s September retail sales, the eurozone’s September unemployment rate and October consumer inflation, the US ADP employment numbers and Chicago PMI for October as well as EIA weekly crude inventory data.