Macro Roundup (Oct 15)

SHANGHAI, Oct 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The dollar edged up on Friday, reflecting investor confidence in the US economy, despite criticism by President Donald Trump of the Federal Reserve and a sell-off in US equities.

LME base metals ended mixed on Friday. Lead surged 2.4% and zinc rose 0.7% while copper, aluminium and nickel slipped some 0.2% and tin slid close to 0.3%.

SHFE base metals, except for tin, ended in positive territory on Friday night. Lead jumped over 2%, zinc gained about 0.6%, copper climbed close to 0.5%, nickel and aluminium edged up some 0.2%.

China recorded a record trade surplus of $34.13 billion with the US in September despite intense trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The surplus exceeded China's overall trade surplus of $31.69 billion for September.

China's dollar-denominated September exports surged 14.5% from a year ago. In August, Chinese exports grew 9.8% from a year ago.

In September, imports grew 14.3% from a year ago, down from growth of 19.9% for August.

Inflation in Germany nudged up again in September, according to official figures published on Friday by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany.

According to the agency, Germany's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% last month year on year, the largest increase since a gain of 2.4% in November 2011. The CPI increased 0.4% on a monthly basis.

US import prices jumped faster than expected in September as energy prices surged but prices excluding fuels remained unchanged.

The Labor Department said on Friday that import prices rose 0.5% last month, the largest increase since May, after a decline of 0.4% in August.

Import prices were previously reported to have fallen 0.6% in August. Economists had forecast import prices rising 0.2% in September.

In the 12 months through September, import prices rose 3.5% after a 3.8% increase in the 12 months through August.

Excluding fuels and food, import prices fell 0.1% last month after slipping 0.2% in August.

Core import prices rose 1% in the 12 months through August. The weakness in core import prices is a likely reflection of strength in the greenback and is expected to offset some of an anticipated increase in prices as the US presses ahead with tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports.

A survey of US consumer sentiment in October fell short of expectations on Friday but found that American confidence in US economic policy stood at a 15-year high.

The University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumers hit 99 in its preliminary reading for October, below the expected 100.4. The index remained just below September's reading of 100.1.

"Consumer sentiment slipped in early October, although it remained at quite favourable levels and just above the average reading during 2018," said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the survey.

"Confidence in the government's economic policies rose in October to its highest level in the past fifteen years, reflecting the strong performance of the national economy," Curtin said. "Most of the October gain was due to an upward adjustment by Democrats, although their evaluations were still well below the much more favourable evaluations of Republicans."

The count of total active rigs in the US surged by 11 to 1,063 over the week ended October 12, according to the latest Baker Hughes weekly survey.

Oil rigs jumped by eight to 869, rising for the first time in four weeks, while gas rigs gained four to 193, with one rig classified as miscellaneous.

Day ahead

Some data to monitor today include US retail sales for September.