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Macro Roundup (Sep 4)
Sep 4,2018 09:09CST
data analysis
A roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today

SHANGHAI, Sep 4 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
Last night

The US dollar inched up 0.01% to close at 95.1, following news that manufacturing activity in the UK slowed more than expected in August.

Base metals, except for lead, dropped across the board. LME aluminium slump 1.4%, copper lost 0.7%, and tin fell 0.63%. SHFE tin declined 1.1%, zinc went down 0.91%, nickel slid 0.86%, and aluminium closed 0.81% lower. Other base metals inched down. LME lead jumped over 1.9% and SHFE lead grew 1.3%.

China's Caixin manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to the lowest since June 2017, from 50.8 in July to 50.6 in August.

"Generally speaking, the manufacturing sector continued to weaken amid soft demand, even though the supply side was still stable," said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a Caixin subsidiary.

"I don't think that stable supply can be sustained amid weak demand. In addition, the worsening employment situation is likely to have an impact on consumption growth. China's economy is now facing relatively obvious downward pressure," Zhong added in the news release on Monday September 3.

In Germany, final manufacturing PMI for August fell from 56.9 to 55.9. German manufacturers remained generally optimistic, but expressed concerns over tariffs that the US imposed on China and the EU.

The final PMI for the eurozone fell to 54.6 in August, in line with estimates, but down from 55.1 in July. This is the slowest growth since November but remains above reading of 50 that separates growth from contraction.

This edition of the survey only represents about 70% of the usual sample size as many European factories take a break over the summer months.

"Eurozone factories reported a further solid production gain in August, but prospects dimmed further as growth of new orders hit a two-year low and worries about the outlook deepened," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Forward-looking indicators such as employment, optimism and new orders all fell, suggesting there would be little, if any ,pick-up in activity this month.

Day ahead

The market should monitor key data today including the US Markit as well as ISM manufacturing PMI for August. Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mark Carney, will also speak about the BoE's decision to raise interest rates in August and its latest inflation reports.



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