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Macro Roundup (Aug 1)
Aug 1,2018 09:03CST
data analysis
Macro Roundup

SHANGHAI, Aug 1 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index inched up 0.17% overnight and stood at 94.5 as investors await the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday.

LME base metals rose across the board on Tuesday. Zinc surged 3.4%, copper and nickel jumped over 1%, aluminium, tin and lead inched up.

SHFE base metals closed mixed overnight. Zinc rose 2.3% and nickel gained 0.77% and copper inched up 0.62%. Aluminium edged up 0.1% while lead dipped 0.22% and tin lost 0.61%.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on Tuesday fell to 51.2 in July, from 51.5 in June and below the expected 51.3. But it remained above the 50-point mark, which separates growth from contraction, for a 24th straight month.

Trade tension, high temperatures and heavy rainfall in July affected companies. July is also typically a low season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official Zhao Qinghe.

The official non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 54 from 55 the previous month. The composite PMI, which covers both manufacturing and services, slipped to 53.6 in July, from June’s 54.4.

Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 0.3% quarter on quarter during the April-June period, slower than the 0.4% in the January-March period, the European Union (EU)'s statistical office Eurostat said on Tuesday. On a yearly basis, the growth rate slipped to 2.1% in the second quarter from 2.5% in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, eurozone inflation rose to 2.1% year on year in July from 2.0% in June and the core rate also nudged up to 1.1% in July from 0.9%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in June after a downward revision of the May figure.

US consumer spending increased solidly in June as households spent more on restaurants and acommodation. This provided a strong foundation for the economy heading into the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity in the US, rose 0.4% last month.

Prices also continued to rise steadily last month. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components gained 0.1% from a month ago in June. That kept the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index at 1.9% for a third straight month. The core PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. The core PCE met the US central bank' inflation target of 2% in March for the first time since December 2011.

The Conference Board consumer confidence index increased marginally to 127.4 in July from 127.1 in June.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories during the week ended July 27 sharply increased by 5.59 million barrels after losing 3.16 million barrels in the previous week. API gasoline inventories for the week shrank by 791,000 barrels after falling by 4.87 million barrels a week ago and refined oil inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels after decreasing by 1.32 million barrels a week ago.

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today will be Caixin’s July manufacturing PMI for China, Markit’s July manufacturing PMI for the US and eurozone, ISM manufacturing PMI for the US, US ADP payrolls in July and the US weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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