SMM Data: China Aluminum Output Jumps in July 

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Arconic Corp. is seeking to purchase about 90 million pounds of aluminum on the spot market for Q2 2026, valued at roughly $218 million at current prices—an unusual shift from traditional long-term contracts. This volume equals ~10% of monthly U.S. aluminum consumption and could further tighten the already constrained market, disrupted by tariff measures

Overnight, the alumina futures 2605 contract opened lower and trended downward. After briefly touching a high of 2,850 yuan/mt at the opening, it fluctuated and pulled back, closing at 2,818 yuan/mt in the final session, marking the intraday low. Trading volume surged significantly by 59,000 lots to 148,000 lots, while open interest increased by 6,579 lots to 306,000 lots. The simultaneous rise in volume and open interest indicates an intensifying tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with active selling pressure strengthening. On the technical indicator front, the short-term moving average system exerted downward pressure on the futures: the closing price clearly fell below both the MA5 (2,838.6) and MA30 (2,832.17), while also breaking through the MA10 (2,823.9) support. The three moving averages are converging but show signs of a bearish alignment, suggesting a weakening short-term technical outlook.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Overall Warm Macro Front Contends with Inventory Buildup Reality, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Fluctuating in the Short Term] In summary, aluminum prices are expected to continue their fluctuating trend under pressure in the short term, constrained above by the reality of inventory buildup and supported below by macro expectations. They are anticipated to remain in the doldrums with limited room for a rebound.