Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-8-4)

SHANGHAI, Aug. 4 (SMM) – US will release nonfarm payrolls, unemployment data and hourly wage rate on Friday. US dollar index fluctuated narrowly on Thursday’s night trading and closed with small losses due to weak ISM nonmanufacturing PMI. Market participants pay close attention on nonfarm payrolls, which will make great impact on US dollar index. Base metals dived on Thursday and stabilized on Thursday’s night trading, and will diverge on Friday.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Aug. 4, 2017)

US’s GDP in Q2 and core PCE prices were mixed, which cannot strengthen expectation over Federal Reserve’s rate hike in the year. Moreover, ADP data released on Thursday was negative, increasing market doubt on rate hike within the year. Positive nonfarm payrolls will shore up US dollar index, and verse visa.

US’s unemployment data is expected to drop in July, but this will affect US’s strong labor market limitedly, while hourly wage rate will make more effect. US’s personal income was flat in June, dragging down consumption expenditure, which restricted US’s economic growth. If hourly wage rate increases, it will help improve inflation data, sending US dollar index up.