Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-1)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 1 (SMM) – Eyes should be on US’s EIA and API oil inventories, manufacturing PMIs from US and China in May, US’s ADP employment and initial jobless claim on Thursday. Base metals rallied after falling in Wednesday’s night trading but were still weak. The metals will range in a wide range on Thursday.

China will release Caixin manufacturing PMI in May on Thursday. If the data drops slightly as expected, it will enhance market pessimistic outlook. Attention should be on sub-items. In April, index of new orders hit a 7-year low, and index of production, new orders and price all fell. China’s economy will face downward pressure in Q2, if the data keeps falling in May.

SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 1, 2017)

The possibility for US Federal Reserve to raise rate by 25 basis points in June is 86%. But, nonfarm payrolls, which will be issued on Friday, will impact rate hike decision. If US’s ADP employment increases by 180,000 in May as expected, it will send US dollar index up, and vice versa.

US’s API crude oil inventory plunged 867 bbls from the week ending May 26, allowing COMEX 1707 oil to surge. EIA crude oil inventory will be released on Thursday night. If the data rebounds, it will support oil price, and vice versa.