Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-28)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 28 (SMM) –Euro zone’s economic climate index may fall slightly in July. Euro zone economy is now in the best state since crisis a decade ago, although inflation is below the ECB’s target. But, positive economic situation and employment rate may push inflation up in the medium term.

Annualized US GDP quarterly rate may rebound to 2.5% in Q2. Around 2.5% growth means US economy has risen to a relatively high level, TD Securities pointed out. But, if the figure is just close to 2%, market may see this as a bad signal, TD Securities added.  

Annualized US core PCE price index quarterly rate is expected at 0.7%, down from 2% in Q1. CPI and retail sales are lower than expected in June. US Fed’s policy statement is dovish, signaling little chance of rate hike for the near term. University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index may stabilize in July after falling for two months in a row. US economy may regain momentum in Q3. Manufacturing PMI is better than expected, which may improve wages, thus boosting consumer confidence.   

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 28, 2017)