Chalco Cuts Aluminum Prices After Continuous Hike on July 18

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

De acordo com relatos da mídia estrangeira, com base em solicitações de várias empresas, incluindo Hindalco Industries e SRF Altech, a Índia decidiu estender as tarifas antidumping sobre folhas de alumínio com espessura de até 80 mícrons importadas da China, Malásia, Tailândia e Indonésia até 15 de dezembro de 2026. Anteriormente, em 29 de setembro de 2025, a Direção-Geral de Remédios Comerciais (DGTR) do Ministério do Comércio e Indústria da Índia havia iniciado uma revisão de sunset das importações de folhas de alumínio desses quatro países.

[SMM Flash do Alumínio] O estoque de lingotes de alumínio secundário nas principais áreas de consumo da China era de 24.600 toneladas, uma redução de 570 toneladas em relação ao dia anterior, com o ritmo de desestocagem se acelerando.