Potential Surplus from Aluminum Capacity Cuts to Weigh on Alumina Prices, SMM Warns 

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

[SMM Analysis: An Overview of the Resumption of Work for Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Enterprises After the 2026 Chinese New Year] Looking ahead, as the industry moves past the holiday impact following the Lantern Festival, coupled with the approaching peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" and the "rush to export" window brought about by adjustments in battery export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of the industry is expected to steadily rebound in late March.