SHFE Nickel to Set for Gains (2107-1-10)

On October 1, 2026, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto appointed Bahlil Lahadalia as Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, while he continues to serve as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). The appointment places downstream industrial development and energy transition coordination under Bahlil alongside his existing responsibilities for Indonesia’s energy and mineral resources sector. For the nickel industry, the development is relevant to monitoring the government’s direction on nickel ore production quotas (RKAB), mining regulations, and downstream processing investment. The impact on nickel supply, permitting, and policy implementation will depend on subsequent government decisions and regulatory measures.

CBAM definitive period, October 2026: CBAM has applied to EU stainless steel imports since January 1, 2026. At the Q2 2026 certificate price of €75.28, Indonesian 304 cold-rolled coil (CRC) carries a CBAM cost of about €626/mt, against €370/mt for Chinese and €185/mt for Japanese material, a gap set by country-specific default values. For default-value users, costs rise fastest in 2026-2028 as the mark-up climbs from 10% to 30%. SMM's Stainless Steel CBAM Calculator is now live.

Outokumpu’s October 2026 North American coil alloy surcharges edged lower across several molybdenum-bearing grades. The surcharge for 316L 2.5% Moly fell 0.5% MoM to $4,291.96/t, while 316L/4404 declined 0.7% to $3,886.31/t. Duplex 2205 was broadly flat at $4,225.83/t. Surcharges for 904L and 254 SMO fell 0.8% and 0.6% to $8,236.48/t and $8,914.62/t, respectively. These are alloy surcharges rather than full steel prices and reflect nickel, chromium and other alloy inputs as well as molybdenum.