SHFE Aluminum Ends with Gains (2016-12-9)

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing Macro Sentiment Holds Quotes Firm, Inventory Buildup Expectations Suppress Aluminum Price Rise] Overall, aluminum prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising after the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: post-holiday aluminum price rebound, alloy enterprises still feel the holiday vibe] after the chinese new year holiday, the secondary aluminum alloy market will gradually shift from the pre-holiday state of "weak supply and demand, stable prices" to a phase of resuming production and recovering demand. since the shutdown period for secondary aluminum plants this year was slightly longer than last year, most enterprises resumed operations between the eighth and fifteenth day of the first lunar month. the pace of supply release in the first week after the holiday is expected to be slow, providing some support to prices; however, the recovery on the demand side is likely to be more gradual, with downstream purchases remaining cautious and need-based until terminal orders show a significant increase. the cost side requires continuous attention to fluctuations in the prices of aluminum scrap, copper, silicon, and other auxiliary materials, as the trend of primary aluminum remains a key variable influencing market sentiment and the price center. overall, in the early post-holiday period, the adc12 price is likely to continue the sideways movement pattern seen before the holiday. the subsequent direction will depend on the match between supply and demand after full production resumptions and the performance of primary aluminum prices. if there is a restocking phase combined with a strong run of primary aluminum, there is room for price recovery; otherwise, prices may face slight pressure but will generally remain in a sideways movement.

Overall, macro perspective, the positive and mild signals from the US-China leaders' call have temporarily eased market tensions regarding trade friction expectations, improving risk appetite. The steady progress in the Eurozone's economic recovery has partially offset the pressure from the US's temporary economic weakness, presenting a generally neutral-to-positive global macro environment that offers a relatively stable external backdrop for commodity markets.