Base Metals to Diverge, SMM Says

In H1 2026, the secondary copper rod market completely broke away from the traditional "copper price–supply and demand" pricing framework. It was primarily hit by the twin policy shocks of "reverse invoicing" moving from transitional review to full implementation and the clearance of local non-compliant fiscal and tax incentives and subsidies (Document No. 770)

[SMM Copper Foil July Market Forecast] SMM expects the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises in July 2026 to be 92.15%, up 0.67 percentage points MoM and 14.87 percentage points YoY. Overall shipments in July are expected to increase by 0.79% MoM. The operating rate for lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 91.1%, and for electronic circuit copper foil, 94.24%.

According to local media in the DRC on July 10, the country’s General Directorate of Taxes (DGI) sealed off some offices and facilities of Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) in Kolwezi, Lualaba Province, on July 9. The DGI stated that KCC is involved in a tax arrears situation of nearly $3 billion. The sealing action led to the evacuation of some personnel, and copper and cobalt production at the affected sites was temporarily suspended. The exact scope of the sealing, its duration, and the actual impact on the mine and smelting systems remain to be further confirmed. As SMM has learned, KCC’s copper cathode production over the past two years has been around 190,000 mt each year. If the sealing measures persist and materially affect production or product deliveries, it is expected to cause periodic disruptions to copper and cobalt supply from the DRC. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the resumption of KCC’s operations and the progress of the tax dispute resolution.