SHANGHAI, Aug. 30 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About half of them expect spot tin in Shanghai to rise further to RMB 124,000-125,500/mt. Investors are rolling positions from SHFE 1609 tin to 1701 tin. SHFE 1609 tin prices look set to rise, while SHFE 1701 tin will probably fluctuate at highs of RMB 125,000-126,500/mt. LME tin will advance to USD 19,000-19,200/mt, with gains to be curbed by a stronger US dollar following Janet Yellen’s hawkish speech.
Another 30% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 123,500-125,000/mt. A stronger US dollar from growing expectations for US rate hike will weigh on base metals futures prices. When combined with soft demand, spot tin prices will lack upward momentum. Spot premiums in Shanghai fell, also indicating a lack of upward momentum for spot prices. LME tin will move at USD 18,700-19,000/mt, and SHFE 1609 tin will range RMB 123,500-125,500/mt.
The rest 20% are bearish that spot tin in Shanghai will fall to RMB 122,000-124,000/mt. A stronger US dollar will drag down tin futures prices. Tin smelters in China are gradually resuming production, while downstream demand remains weak. These, together with tight cash at month’s end, will push spot tin prices down. SHFE 1609 tin will head to RMB 121,500/mt if it loses support at RMB 123,000/mt. LME tin will drop to USD 18,500-18,700/mt.