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Looking ahead to tomorrow, following the SHFE 2603 contract rollover, spot quotes adjusted notably. Market activity is recovering as supply remains ample with continued import arrivals and unmatched warrant releases. Downstream enterprises have resumed operations post-holiday, boosting trading sentiment. However, supply-side pressure persists, particularly from warrant releases, weighing on premiums. The month-on-month contango supports holders' delivery willingness, diverting some supply and providing discount support. As the market enters early post-holiday rebalancing, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today marked the first trading session after the SHFE copper 2603 contract rollover, with spot quotations undergoing significant adjustments following the contract switch. From the actual market performance, both supply and demand sides showed signs of recovery. Supply side, the price ratio-favorable cargoes locked in during the previous import window opening continued to supplement the domestic market, coupled with the gradual outflow of unmatched delivery warrants, keeping the overall circulating supply at high levels. Demand side, as the Chinese New Year holiday ended, some downstream enterprises began to resume production and gradually entered the market for inquiries and purchases, with procurement and sales sentiment significantly rebounding compared to the previous trading session. It is worth noting that although supply and demand are recovering simultaneously, the release of supply increments is more direct, especially as the outflow of unmatched delivery warrants will put pressure on spot premiums/discounts. Meanwhile, the contango structure between adjacent months indicates that suppliers still have the intention to ship to delivery warehouses for forward months, which will divert some circulating spot cargoes and provide some support to the discount range. Overall, the market is in the initial stage of post-holiday supply-demand rebalancing, and spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.