Main sea freight index at Baltic Exchange rises further to 978 points

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 79,300 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW from this Monday; Jiangsu social inventory at 18,100 mt, flat WoW from this Monday. Overall inventory in east China edged up, and spot supply has yet to show any clear tightening. With delivery approaching, the intermonth Back price spread between futures contracts further widened to 600–750 yuan/mt. Higher contract rollover costs prompted some suppliers to accelerate spot sales, and quotes against the 2608 contract quickly moved lower accordingly; meanwhile, some deliverable-brand cargo meeting delivery standards flowed into the warrant channel, further differentiating spot cargo flows. After intraday discounts widened to around 300 yuan/mt, some market participants began to purchase, but trades clearly skewed toward cargo with lower prices, higher brand recognition, or better fit with their own production needs. Downstream buyers had ample choices and became more stringent in screening by brand and price, while actual end-use demand has yet to show any obvious improvement. As delivery neared, some suppliers had attempted to shift to quoting against the 2609 contract, with offers around a premium of 400 yuan/mt; the market may gradually enter a phase where the 2608 and 2609 contracts serve as dual benchmarks in parallel. It should be noted that the apparent uplift in premiums after contract rollover mainly came from the Back spread switch and does not indicate a substantive strengthening of spot supply and demand. Overall, if quoting continues against the 2608 contract, spot cargo may remain at relatively deep discounts; as the pricing benchmark gradually shifts to the 2609 contract, quotes are set to recover markedly, but transaction divergence among brands is expected to persist.

[SMM Marché d’import-export du cuivre] Le 13 août, les stocks de cathodes de cuivre dans les entrepôts sous douane chinois recensés par SMM s’élevaient à 35 200 t, en hausse de 4 100 t en glissement hebdomadaire. Selon SMM, la hausse des stocks en entrepôt sous douane s’explique principalement par : 1. l’ouverture récente de la fenêtre d’exportation, qui a créé des opportunités d’arbitrage à l’export pour certaines cathodes de cuivre et entraîné une concentration de cargaisons dans l’entrepôt sous douane ; 2. les arrivées successives antérieures de warrants annulés en provenance des entrepôts asiatiques du LME, qui ont encore alourdi les niveaux de stocks.