Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch Sept 07, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

By  Paul Ploumis 07 Sep 2015  Last updated at 06:35:00 GMT

Gold futures slightly retreated for a 10th day in the longest run of losses since 1996 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines and investors sold more through funds.The metal dropped 6.1 percent as it fell every day since July 9 in New York

Macro Headlines

 • China revised down the 2014 GDP growth rate to 7.3% from the previously announced 7.4%

• US nonfarm payrolls rose 173K in August below than the average rate of 220K while unemployment rate hits 5.1%, lowest level in 7 years

• Germany factory orders fell to -1.4% while industrial production dropped to 0.7% from estimates of 1.2% in August

• Today US markets remain shut due to Labor Day while China resumes after long holiday weekend

Currencies

 • USDINR: The Indian rupee fell for a second day against the dollar in last week, marking a fourth straight weekly decline, after local shares slipped to more than a year-low on caution ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs data, raising concerns of foreign fund outflows. The rupee closed at 66.46 to a dollar on Friday to the lowest since Aug. 31, from 66.24 at the previous close. US jobs data failed to give any exact sign of rate hike indication. Today USDINR expected to remain firm above 66.70- 67 levels in spot

• EURINR: The euro fell sharply; having come under broad pressure after the European Central Bank gave a sobering assessment of the euro zone economy and suggested it may have to beef up its already massive stimulus program. Today euro edged higher against the dollar after the latest U.S. jobs report failed to provide much clarity on whether the U.S. central bank will decide to raise short term interest rates later this month. Euro is expected to come down to 74.50-75 levels ahead of Euro zone business confidence.

Commodities

 Base Metals: LME metals dropped on Friday as mixed US jobs data unable to unveil any other indications of rate hikes in this month. Dollar rallied amid 10 years government bond yield in last week as unemployment rate reduced to more than 7 years low. London copper slipped in the initial trading today as China resumed after long holiday weekend. Today US markets remain closed thus we may see some speculative move ahead as US market remain closed due to public holiday. Copper also getting support from supply disturbances as Peruvian mine shut due to strikes. Copper and other industrial metals have fallen, unnerved by prospects of an increase in US interest rates and the re-opening next week of the hard-hit Chinese stock market. Any downbeat of US economic data will add buying pressure on metals on lower side. Copper expected to take support at 342-339 while zinc at 118.90. Aluminum break above 118.30 may spur towards 119 levels.

Global Economic Events

 Precious Metals: Gold reached to more than two weeks low near $1120 ounce on the release of mixed U.S. payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Dollar stability and global equities weaknesses due to China slowdown supported the global sentiments last week. Gold expected to trade volatile ahead of Fed rate decision due in next week. Downside limited as we expect Fed unlikely to opt for imminent lift off in this month and some festive demand will add premium in spot market. Gold major support at $1080-1100 while resistance at 1135-1180. Gold prices today are expected to trade steady to higher side as US market remains closed due to public holiday. Gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 0.27% at $1,118.40 a troy ounce and Silver futures for September delivery rose 0.56% to $14.630 a troy ounce. Buying in gold on lower side with stop loss of 26300 can be done today ahead of U Unemployment report.

 Energy: Crude-oil futures pared early losses in Asian trade today but were still trading marginally lower on demand concerns and amid lingering fears over volatility in China's markets after Asia's top oil consumer cut its growth rate for last year. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude futures for delivery in October traded at $45.79 a barrel down $0.26 and October Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.32 to $49.29 a barrel. Oil stuck to a narrow range and trading was thin with Chinese resumed after long holiday but US remain shut today so we may don’t see physical activity in the spot market. Today on speculative move there will be some selling pressure can emerges towards 3010 levels but overall on rally likely to be continued towards Rs.3150 in near term, until prices are well trading above 2900 levels buying on dips for small profits can be done. Gas expected to trade in range of Rs175-185 levels on moderate weather conditions in US.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

Trend Watch

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade