By Paul Ploumis 10 Aug 2015 Last updated at 04:06:49 GMT
(Kitco News) - Negative market sentiment is showing some signs of weakening despite the fact the majority of retail investors and market professionals expect to see lower prices next week, according to the results of the latest Kitco News Wall Street vs. Main Street Weekly Gold Survey.
December gold futures traded in a fairly tight range this past week, preparing to end in neutral territory after six consecutive weeks of negative closes. The market appears to be benefiting from some repositioning Friday after prices failed to test last week’s lows on a “solid” U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July.
Although gold is seeing some modest buying at the end of the week, prices remain below the new key psychological area of $1,100 an ounce and it doesn’t appear that the selling pressure is expected to end anytime soon.
The Kitco News weekly online survey shows that the majority expects to see lower prices in the near-term for the fourth consecutive week. This week, 202 people participated in the survey; of those 123 people, or 61%, said they are bearish on gold next week; 159 participants, or 29%, are bullish; and 20 people, or 10%, are neutral.
It is interesting to note that negative sentiment among retail investors has fallen from a recent high of 75%.
Last week there was some hope in the marketplace that gold could see a technical bounce but that never materialized and as a result, Kitco’s panel of experts is once again negative on the yellow metal. This week, out of 33 market experts contacted, 17 responded, of which four, or 24%, said they expect to see higher prices next week. At the same time, nine professionals, or 53%, said they see lower prices, and four people, or 24%, are neutral on gold. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, is one of the professionals who shifted from his bullish view last week. He said that he is now neutral on the gold market and was disappointed that gold couldn’t get above $1,100 an ounce last week as momentum indicators continue to point to oversold levels.
He added that it is expected to be a slower trading period next week with markets now deep in the summer holiday season, and he doesn’t see gold breaking its range between $1,070 an ounce and $1,110 an ounce.
Cieszynski isn’t the only analyst who is disappointed that gold can’t even test the much-watched resistance level at $1,110. Ted Soup, senior market strategist at iiTrader, said that many bulls are disappointed that the market can’t even sustain a short-term bounce. He added that is a strong signal that the sellers are in full control of the marketplace.
“There is no counter trend in this market because it looks like the sellers are just lining up behind each other,” he said.
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, explained that he is bearish on gold because not only is the yellow metal losing ground to the U.S. dollar but it is also weakening in other currencies.
“If gold continues to lose value to devalued currencies euro and yen, it could very well enter triple-digit territory. It must stay above the 2013 euro & yen lows for any hope of reaching higher energy states,” he said.
Courtesy: Kitco News