The policy will temporarily lift aluminum prices in China and weigh on prices overseas, SMM aluminum analyst Wang Cunhui said.
However, Wang warns that there will be limit impact on exports of bar and rod, unless the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio proves favorable.
Exports of aluminum bar and rod suffer losses of over 500 yuan/tonne at current SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio and overseas aluminum premiums, Wang said.
The decline in the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio will favor masked aluminum semi exports, followed by aluminum bar and rod, then aluminum ingot, after the provisional export tax on aluminum bar and rod is repealed, Wang noted.
Once the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio proves favorable, exports of aluminum bar and rod will balloon and create a flood of supply into international market. Such a surge in supply overseas will, in turn, push up the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio, again disfavoring the export of aluminum semis, Wang added.
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