SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Oct. 20-24, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 21 (SMM) – SHFE 1412 aluminum contract fared worse than LME aluminum last week. The most active contract rebounded early last week, but did not break through the 5-day moving average. Prices suffered three consecutive days of losses later in the week, falling to RMB 13,555/mt as investors cut bullish bets. In China’s spot market, SHFE 1411 aluminum contract shifted to the front-month contract on October 16. Downstream producers bought only as needed and pushed for lower prices. Traders also showed little buying interest. This caused spot discounts to widen to over RMB 50/mt over front-month contract. 

 

This coming week, on the technical side, the most active SHFE aluminum contract should drop to RMB 13,500-13,650/mt. In China’s physical market, demand is unlikely to pick up, which will cause spot aluminum to trade at discounts of RMB 20-70/mt over SHFE front-month aluminum contract.