SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Oct. 13-17, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 14 (SMM) – Lead for November delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, advanced to RMB 13,800-13,900/mt early last week, but later fell. Positions for the most active contract decreased from levels before the Chinese National Day holiday. The most active SHFE 1411 lead contract recently is set to advance to RMB 13,800-14,000/mt this week as a rising number of shorts are liquidating positions.

On China’s physical lead markets, traded prices were largely in a RMB 13,650-13,750/mt band last week. Lead supply fell short of demand since smelters in Shanghai moved goods in light volumes due to low prices and since traders ramped up purchases given low inventories. Lead smelters in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangxi were disinclined to sell, causing ex-factory prices in these regions to exceed those in Shanghai. Physical lead prices are expected to advance slightly to RMB 13,750-13,850/mt this week. Lead smelters will ramp up sales if lead prices rise this week, helping increase market supply. Traders are likely to be more willing to buy given their current low inventories and as physical discounts are expanding. Meanwhile, bargain-buying should ramp up for delivery under the SHFE 1410 lead contract, lending a boost to spot lead prices. Lead-acid battery producers, however, will hold to the sidelines this week as most built sufficient input inventories starting in late September.