SMM Copper Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jun. 30-Jul. 4, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 1 (SMM) – The most active SHFE copper contract prices followed LME copper up last week to stand above RMB 49,000/mt, but met resistance at RMB 49,700/mt. SHFE 1409 copper contracts became the most active contract. Long positions grew significantly, and trading activity became more brisk during night trading sessions.

SHFE 1409 copper contract prices may test resistance at RMB 50,000/mt, but then fall to around RMB 49,500/mt.

Heading into a new month, liquidity conditions at enterprises will begin to improve this week. Meanwhile, supply of imported copper is also expected to fall since the SHFE/LME copper price ratio has fallen below 7.2. However, downstream producers will also show little buying interest during the low demand months of July and August, so SMM expects copper premiums in China’s spot markets to be between RMB 300-500/mt.