“Our modestly constructive view on gold appeared to unfold in earnest this month, with Comex bullion prices jumping to 13-week highs on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s outlook for U.S. interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future, weighing on the U.S. dollar, boosting inflation expectations and with growing concerns over the escalating violence in Iraq,” Citi added. 

 

Despite their outlook of strong and persistent Chinese physical demand growth failing to materialize, with the China Gold Association now expecting 2014 China gold demand to be flat on 2013 levels, Citi continues to expect gold prices to trend above $1,300 an ounce during the second half of the year.

 

Citi expects prices to find both physical market support from better Indian consumption, helped by an expected relaxation of India’s gold import duties in H2, and investor support from continued Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions on the one hand and U.S. dollar weakness on the other.