SMM Copper Market Daily Review (2014-6-19)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 20 (SMM) – The most active SHFE copper contract rose to as high as RMB 48,240/mt during Wednesday’s night session, and closed up RMB 20/mt at RMB 48,190/mt. During the night session, trading volumes for the contract fell further to some 40,000 lots, but positions held essentially unchanged.

On Thursday, SHFE copper prices advanced to only RMB 48,330/mt before dipping to RMB 47,840/mt due to a 1.8% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index. The red metal hovered largely around the RMB 48,000/mt mark during the afternoon trading session, and recouped some losses at the tail of the trading to finish down RMB 110/mt, or 0.23%, at RMB 48,080/mt.

Trading volumes for the most active contract decreased by 17,858 lots, and positions shed by 10,524 lots. Trading volumes for the SHFE 1409 lead contract gained by 8,712 lots, and positions added by 7,650 lots. SHFE copper prices continue to face resistance at the 20-day moving average, but have found brief support at the 10-day moving average. Investors need to be cautioned over risks of a fall in SHFE copper prices with increasing sell-offs of back-month copper contracts.

In the Shanghai physical market, copper was offered Thursday at a RMB 420-640/mt premium over the SHFE front-month copper contract. Traded prices were RMB 48,950-49,150/mt for standard-quality copper and RMB 49,100-49,300/mt for high-quality copper. Despite weakness in SHFE copper prices, cargo holders continued to hold prices firm. A large number of middlemen entered the market to hunt for bargains after SHFE copper prices fell by nearly RMB 300/mt subsequently. Physical copper prices also declined below RMB 49,000/mt at one stage, with improving trading activity.

As SHFE copper prices hovered in a narrow range during the afternoon trading session, some speculators began buying, and physical copper supply declined further, with standard-quality copper barely found in the market. Copper was largely quoted at RMB 450-640/mt premium, and traded between RMB 48,970-49,200/mt.