SMM Copper Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jun. 16-20, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 17 (SMM) – The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded last week and gained 1.3% from the previous week. SHFE copper prices were more resistant to declines than LME copper, moving primarily between RMB 47,200-47,800/mt, but still down 1.3% for the week. Both short and long positions in distant-month contracts increased. Traded volumes for SHFE copper contracts grew by 1.26 million lots last week, while positions fell by 15,000 lots.

SHFE copper prices will follow LME copper down this week to test the 60-day moving average and may possibly fall to RMB 46,500-46,800/mt after slipping below the 60-day moving average.

Spot premiums fell by over 60% early last week due to panic selling arising from Qingdao’s investigation. Spot copper was offered at premiums of RMB 0-100/mt compared to the RMB 300-500/mt premiums from a week earlier. Spot discounts were reported at one time due to increasing supply of imported copper, but later since traders become more active purchasing in order to deliver long-term contracts, spot premiums rose again after SHFE copper prices stabilized. Trading by middlemen was brisk.