SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Apr. 28-30, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 28 (SMM) – Prices for the most active SHFE 1405 lead contract tracked rising LME lead prices higher last week to RMB 13,900/mt, up from RMB 13,800/mt. Positions also grew by over 400 lots due to bullish sentiment. The most active SHFE 1405 lead contract price rose above RMB 13,900/mt last week, and with additional technical indicators being positive, should hover this week largely between RMB 13,900-14,000/mt.

SMM #1 lead prices rose last week by RMB 100/mt. Traded prices in the Shanghai market were mostly between RMB 13,900-14,000/mt, with prices for deliverable brands Nanfang, Chengyuan, and Chihong Zn & Ge all essentially above RMB 13,950/mt. Physical lead in the Guangdong market was sold between RMB 13,850-13,950/mt, but traders in Guangdong province showed little selling interest since they expected lead prices to rise. As a result, lead supply was relatively tight, with smelters in Hunan and Henan provinces, as well as others in north China all holding back goods. Traded prices should move higher this week in tandem with LME lead prices to the RMB 13,850-14,000/mt range. Shortages of lead concentrate last week forced widespread maintenance at smelters and dampened their selling interest. Downstream producers were suspending operations due to lower lead supply. This week, lead smelters are expect to control deliveries due to tight lead concentrate supply, but also since a growing number of downstream producers will also reportedly be closing for the May Day holiday. As a result, transactions this week for lead ingot will be light.