SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Apr. 21-25, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 22 (SMM) – The price for the most actively traded SHFE 1405 lead contract was unchanged last week between RMB 13,700-13,800/mt, but met strong resistance at higher levels. Physical lead was traded last Tuesday at a premium over the most active SHFE lead contract price, causing a surge in positions for SHFE 1404 contracts. SHFE lead prices have found support at the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, but met strong resistance at RMB 13,790/mt. Prices should advance slightly this week to RMB 13,850/mt.

In China’s physical lead markets last week, lead supply remained relatively tight. Traded prices in the Shanghai market were mostly between RMB 13,750-13,800/mt and RMB 13,600-13,650/mt for warehouse receipt supplies in the Guangdong market. Suppliers barely sold goods in small amounts in Henan and Hunan provinces. Smelters and traders both held back goods, expecting prices to rise. Downstream producers reverted a wait-and-see posture since weak lead-acid battery demand left them skeptical of any further increases in lead prices. Physical lead should trade mostly between RMB 13,750-13,850/mt. Lead supply is expected to grow due to outflows of deliverable goods and greater selling interest at smelters. Meanwhile, some downstream producers are considering extending the upcoming May Day holiday due to the seasonal low-demand period. These producers plan to build stocks in advance, which should increase purchases this week.