SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Apr. 14-18, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 15 (SMM) – The most active SHFE 1405 lead contract price struggled last week between RMB 13,700-13,750/mt, but experienced strong buying support. Investors were actively hunting for bargains as the delivery date for the SHFE 1404 lead contract neared, with positions for the SHFE 1404 lead contract level with those for the SHFE 1405 lead contract. SHFE 1405 lead contract prices are expected to consolidate between RMB 13,700-13,750/mt, and test resistance at RMB 13,850/mt this week.

Traded prices varied by region in China’s physical lead markets. Traded prices were RMB 13,550-13,650/mt in the Guangdong market due to warehouse receipt supply, and RMB 13,650-13,750/mt in Shanghai, Henan province, and north China due to tight supply. Lead smelters were increasingly reluctant to move goods now that an increasing number of smelters were entering maintenance cycles, but lead-acid battery producers expressed strong buying interest after SHFE lead prices rose. Traded prices this week will range largely between RMB 13,650-13,800/mt. Smelters will be willing to trade in limited volumes at high prices, but will still be more inclined to hold back goods. Lead supply from traders should increase in general, and most deliveries will be from Guangdong. Downstream producers will continue to purchase goods only on an as-needed basis due to sluggish end-user consumption.