SMM Brief on SHFE Copper Prices (2014-4-14)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 14 (SMM) – SHFE copper prices challenged resistance at the RMB 47,000/mt mark after starting last Friday’s night session at RMB 46,600/mt, boosted by a sharp rally in LME copper prices. The red metal, however, tested a low of RMB 46,390/mt subsequently due to profit-taking, and finished up RMB 100/mt at RMB 46,580/mt. During the night session, traded volumes rose to some 320,000 lots, while positions decreased by 1,306 lots. Positions for the SHFE 1408 copper contract instead surged by 10,740 lots, with significantly brisk trading activity. On Monday, the short squeeze for the SHFE current-month copper contract gave a boost to SHFE copper contracts, with the most active SHFE copper contract hitting a high of RMB 46,950/mt. The contract prices later fell back due to technical resistance, and closed Monday up RMB 300/mt, or 0.65%, at RMB 46,780/mt. Traded volumes gained by 147,000 lots, while positions shed by 17,388 lots. Positions for the SHFE 1408 copper contract expanded by 17,080 lots, and positions for the SHFE current-month copper contract continued to hover at around 10,000 lots after decreasing by 7,520 lots. The copper warrant report released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange suggests that 5,000 lots of positions are expected to be liquidated in the last trading day for the SHFE 1404 copper contract. This will further push up the SHFE current-month copper contract price and cause sell-offs in SHFE distant-month copper contracts. The SHFE current-month copper contract will continue to outperform the most active SHFE copper contract, with the price gap between these two contracts expected to widen.