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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2013-11-25)
Nov 25,2013 10:37CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
LME lead price is expected to range between USD 2,090-2,120/mt, while the most-traded SHFE lead price is forecast to move between RMB 14,000-14,100/mt.

SHANGHAI, Nov. 25 (SMM) – Last Friday, LME lead price was in range-bound trading in Asian trading hours due to the lack of major news, hovering around the opening of USD 2,090/mt. During European and the US trading session, German November IFO Business Confidence rose to an eighteen-month high and its Q3 GDP also matched forecasts, showing that Germany’s economy is recovering steadily. In response, the euro regained losses in previous two trading days, up 0.56%. Most European and the US stock markets also closed with gains, lending further support to LME lead price. LME lead climbed above the USD 2,100/mt mark and finally closed at USD 2,105/mt, up USD 17/mt or 0.81%. Technically, LME lead was poised to rebound after finding base support. Attention will be on European and the US economic data including the US October pending home sales and the US November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity on Monday.         

On a seasonally adjusted basis, German final Q3 GDP grew 0.3%, in line with estimates and Q2’s level. German November IFO survey beat forecast and October’s reading. Among the survey, the business climate surged to a peak of 109.3 since April 2012, while the business confidence jumped to an eighteen-month high of 109.3, exceeding October’s 107.7. As a result, the euro rallied, giving a boost to metals price.     
 
The most eye-catching event last Friday was that financial officers in the euro zone met again to discuss matters concerning European countries’ economic restructuring and reform. The topic of this meeting was concentrated on the European Commission’s stance over its members’ budget. Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, pointed out that all members in the euro zone would abide by the European Union’s budget rules and welcomed promises made by members in the euro zone to carry on economic reform. 
 
Most European and the US stock markets recorded gains, with the Dow Jones and the Standard & Poor's hitting fresh record highs in closing, while LME base metals price, except LME aluminum and tin, all rose.  
 
With no major news expected on Monday, metals markets will continue to be buoyed by a weakening US dollar. LME lead price is expected to range between USD 2,090-2,120/mt, while the most-traded SHFE lead price is forecast to move between RMB 14,000-14,100/mt. In China’s spot lead market, traded price will rise marginally to a range of RMB 13,900-14,000/mt on Monday.     
 
LME lead price
SHFE lead price

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