SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (18-22 Nov. 2013)

SHANGHAI, Nov. 18 (SMM) – SHFE lead prices were no more resistant to declines and followed LME lead prices down. SHFE 1401 lead contract replaced SHFE 1312 lead contracts to be the most active contract, but both contracts both were restrained by the 5-day moving average and fell below previous support levels. The most active SHFE 1401 lead contract prices will move between RMB 14,100-14,250/mt this week, boosted by stronger LME lead prices .

In China’s spot lead market last week, transactions were sluggish, with traded prices falling  below 14,000/mt. Lead smelters were reluctant to move goods and downstream producers were also expecting prices to fall further. Last Friday marked the latest delivery date, so a large number of deliverable goods entered the market with a premium of RMB 10/mt over SHFE current month lead contracts. This week traded prices will hover above RMB 14,000/mt. Lead smelters will trade more actively and downstream producers are also expected to increase purchases once SHFE lead prices stabilize. Transactions should pick up, but a surge in deliverable goods from futures markets will put downward pressure on spot lead prices.