SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-7-24)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 24 (SMM) – US FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.7% to 201.8 in May, signaling sustainable recovery in the US housing market. Consumer Confidence Index in the euro zone climbed to -17.4 in July, the highest in nearly two years. The euro rose as a result, pushing the US dollar index down to 82. However, investors were cautious ahead of flash China manufacturing PMI for July. LME aluminum failed to break through the 60-day moving average, but still found strong support at USD 1,840/mt. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day at USD 1,846/mt, up USD 4/mt or 0.22%. Positions decreased 886 lots to 739,380 lots. LME aluminum inventories were down 2,650 mt to 5,466,500 mt. 

LME aluminum will test support at the 5-day moving average and move within USD 1,830-1,855/mt on Wednesday. SHFE 1310 aluminum contract is expected to open flat at RMB 14,400/mt, with prices between RMB 14,330-14,430/mt. In spot market, prices will more likely drop given the oversupply. Spot discount of RMB 0-30/mt and premium of RMB 0-10/mt are expected over SHFE 1308 aluminum contract prices.