SMM Zinc Weekly Review and Forecast (8-12 Jul. 2013)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 8 (SMM) – Premiums for #0 zinc against SHFE 1310 zinc contract prices narrowed last Tuesday, but expanded later in the week. Smelters slowed deliveries in order to preserve cash flow, but also due to maintenance or low inventories. Traders were also distressed due to falling zinc prices and higher spot premiums. Most downstream enterprises were now purchasing on as needed basis as the low demand season for zinc begins. Approximately 2,000 mt in stocks were shipped out of Shanghai warehouses each day last week, down 800-1,000 mt from the previous week and another sign of weak demand. As Zijin cut output and Shuangyan-branded goods were slow to arrive in markets, supply in Tianjin market was tight, leaving the price spread between Tianjin and Shanghai up to RMB 200/mt.

 

During the week from 8 – 12 July, LME zinc prices are expected to fall to USD 1,850/mt, but find support between USD 1,810-1,820/mt. SHFE 1310 zinc contract prices will test RMB 14,300/mt, with spot premiums between RMB 100-130/mt.