SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-6-3)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 3 (SMM) – Most of the US economic data released last Friday were positive. Chicago PMI rose to 58.7 in May, the highest level since last March. The University of Michigan final index of US consumer sentiment in May climbed to 84.5, a record high since July 2007. The US registered a 0.1% increase in retail sales in April. However, upbeat figures fueled fear that the US Federal Reserve will scale back QE3. Meanwhile, investors were worried that China’s official May PMI may decline. The struggle between longs and shorts kept LME aluminum in check last Friday. LME aluminum only touched a high of USD 1,914/mt, and finally closed 0.30% higher at USD 1,903/mt. LME aluminum inventories decreased 7,975 mt to 5,202,000 mt.

The light metal will rise on China’s growing manufacturing PMI for May. LME aluminum should challenge USD 1,930/mt and move within USD 1,900-1,930/mt on Monday. SHFE 1309 aluminum contract may become the most active one, and is expected to open higher at RMB 14,850/mt, with prices between RMB 14,800-14,900/mt. In spot market, wait-and-see sentiment will be strong at the beginning of the week. Spot discount of RMB 20-60/mt is expected over SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices.