SMM Copper Market Morning Review (2013-4-8)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 8 (SMM) – The US ADP private sector employment in March was well below forecasts, and initial jobless claims last week hit a new 4-month high. Besides, the March nonfarm payrolls announced last Friday also missed expectations. These figures kept investors worried about the outlook for the US economic growth. In this context, the S&P 500 shed 1% last week, its biggest weekly decline in three months. Nymex crude tumbled 4.7% last week, its first weekly fall in five weeks. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan strengthened its policy easing, boosting market sentiment to some extent. The US dollar index slipped on weak US economic indicators, also lending some support to commodity prices. LME copper bounced back after finding its low at USD 7,331/mt. Finally, LME copper finished at USD 7,422/mt last Thursday. LME copper inventories are growing steadily, but the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 25.37% during the Chinese Qingming holiday, a sign that weak fundamental may improve. 

Shorts will dominate the market due to worse-than-expected US non-farm payrolls, putting downward pressure on LME copper. LME copper should repeatedly test support at USD 7,400/mt and move within USD 7,380-7,480/mt during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index will remain at low levels, while SHFE 1308 copper contract should fluctuate in the range of RMB 53,800-54,500/mt after opening lower. In spot markets, cargo holders will hold offers less firm as downstream buying interest will wane, with spot copper premiums expected between RMB 150-250/mt.