SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-3)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-3)

Price Review & Forecast 09:52:14AM Apr 03, 2013 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr. 3 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,015/mt and closed at USD 22,951/mt overnight, down by USD 149/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,100/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,900/mt. Daily trading volumes were 177 lots, down by 183 lots. Positions were 20,503 lots, up by 8 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 14,025 mt, unchanged from a day earlier.

LME tin prices fluctuated narrowly around USD 23,000/mt and finally closed at USD 22,951/mt, down USD 149/mt from a day earlier. The US manufacturing PMI for March was below market expectation, with new order sub-index recording deepest decline. China’s official PMI was also below market expectation. The euro zone PMI for March was also downbeat. These all weighed on market sentiment.

Market focus was still on the euro zone. Cyprus announced to loosen currency control, hiking the ceiling of financial transaction from EUR 5,000 to EUR 25,000 and lower freezing amount of large depositors from 40% to 10%. In addition, Cyprus successfully will receive bailout fund from May and Cypriot financial adjustment period will be extended to 2018.

The Cypriot crisis gradually eased, but a spate of economic data from many economies was lower than market expectation, renewing market concern. Italy’s unemployment rate for February was 11.6%, slightly better than market expectation and previous reading, but PMI for March was disappointing. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from France, Germany and euro zone was all below 50. Besides, unemployment rate in the euro zone was 12% in March, the highest since 1995. According to European Commission, the euro zone unemployment rate will hit 12.2% in 2013, and will be 12.1% in 2014. The contracting manufacturing PMI and deteriorating employment market triggered market concern that the euro zone economic concession is expanding. 

Later, Fed official Lockhart further defended loose monetary policy and optimistically projected the US GDP growth for 2013 may exceed 2.0%. The US factory orders for February rose by 3% MoM to hit 5-month high and IBD/TIPP economic optimism for April were both better than market expectation, lending support for the US stock market and US dollar. On Tuesday, the US dollar further tested 83, exerting downward pressure on commodity market. 

Close attention should be paid to ADP employment data and HSBC’s China servicing PMI for March. SMM expects that LME tin prices will continue to fluctuate around USD 23,000/mt, and will meet resistance at USD 23,100/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 150,000-153,000/mt on Wednesday.

 

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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-3)

Price Review & Forecast 09:52:14AM Apr 03, 2013 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr. 3 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,015/mt and closed at USD 22,951/mt overnight, down by USD 149/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,100/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,900/mt. Daily trading volumes were 177 lots, down by 183 lots. Positions were 20,503 lots, up by 8 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 14,025 mt, unchanged from a day earlier.

LME tin prices fluctuated narrowly around USD 23,000/mt and finally closed at USD 22,951/mt, down USD 149/mt from a day earlier. The US manufacturing PMI for March was below market expectation, with new order sub-index recording deepest decline. China’s official PMI was also below market expectation. The euro zone PMI for March was also downbeat. These all weighed on market sentiment.

Market focus was still on the euro zone. Cyprus announced to loosen currency control, hiking the ceiling of financial transaction from EUR 5,000 to EUR 25,000 and lower freezing amount of large depositors from 40% to 10%. In addition, Cyprus successfully will receive bailout fund from May and Cypriot financial adjustment period will be extended to 2018.

The Cypriot crisis gradually eased, but a spate of economic data from many economies was lower than market expectation, renewing market concern. Italy’s unemployment rate for February was 11.6%, slightly better than market expectation and previous reading, but PMI for March was disappointing. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from France, Germany and euro zone was all below 50. Besides, unemployment rate in the euro zone was 12% in March, the highest since 1995. According to European Commission, the euro zone unemployment rate will hit 12.2% in 2013, and will be 12.1% in 2014. The contracting manufacturing PMI and deteriorating employment market triggered market concern that the euro zone economic concession is expanding. 

Later, Fed official Lockhart further defended loose monetary policy and optimistically projected the US GDP growth for 2013 may exceed 2.0%. The US factory orders for February rose by 3% MoM to hit 5-month high and IBD/TIPP economic optimism for April were both better than market expectation, lending support for the US stock market and US dollar. On Tuesday, the US dollar further tested 83, exerting downward pressure on commodity market. 

Close attention should be paid to ADP employment data and HSBC’s China servicing PMI for March. SMM expects that LME tin prices will continue to fluctuate around USD 23,000/mt, and will meet resistance at USD 23,100/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 150,000-153,000/mt on Wednesday.