SMM Copper Market Morning Review (2013-3-22)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 22 (SMM) – Cyprus will vote this weekend on the creation of national solidarity fund, bank restructuring and other issues. The ECB confirmed it would only guarantee assistance for Cyprus through Monday unless a new aid program is in place. The comprehensive PMI in the euro zone fell from 47.9 in February to 46.5 in March, below the expected 48.2. What surprised markets is that manufacturing PMI in Germany and France pointed to contraction. The S&P downgraded Cyprus’s credit rating, causing the European stock markets to close 0.7% lower and the US stock markets to close with losses. Against this backdrop, LME copper surrendered gains recorded in the Asian trading session, with its low-end price down to USD 7,566/mt. Finally, LME copper closed USD 10/mt lower at USD 7,609/mt.

Investors in Asia will wait to see how the Cyprus issue evolves. LME copper should move within USD 7,580-7,680/mt during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index will have little upward impetus, so SHFE 1307 copper contract prices are expected to fluctuate in the band of RMB 55,500-56,200/mt after a low opening. Spot copper discounts are expected between RMB 0-20, and premiums between RMB 0-80/mt.