SMM Nickel Price Forecast (Mar. 18-22)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 18 (SMM) --

Positive Factors:

1. The February PPI in the US was annualized at 1.7%, higher than previous reading of 1.4% and close to market expectations of 1.8%. Last week’s initial jobless claims were 332,000, also better than the 350,000 expected. Economic reports from the US were all relatively positive, which pushed up US equity markets and base metal prices as well.

2. After steadily rising for the past week, LME nickel price finally returned above USD 17,000/mt. MACD and KDJ indicators all point upward, suggesting a strong technical upward momentum for LME nickel prices.

Negative Factors:

1. Negotiations between Greece, the EU, IMF and ECB were called off, delaying the EUR 2.8 billion bailout to Greece.

2. According to data from the EU, the adjusted unemployment rate for Q4 fell by 0.3%, and the decline in the unemployment rate for Q3 was also revised upward to 0.2%. For the whole of 2012, unemployment in the euro zone fell 0.7%, but the overall weak employment market continues dampened market confidence.

In general, news was mixed and markets did not show any clear upward momentum over the short term. However, economic data released on Friday, especially PMI from major economies and nonfarm employment payrolls from the US, will increase market activity. Technically, LME nickel prices are considered to have hit bottom and may rebound if Friday’s economic reports are positive.

In the Shanghai nickel spot market, stainless steel mills were under increasing cash flow pressure, so purchasing demand for nickel was weak.