SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-3-18)

SHANGHAI, Mar.18 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,950/mt and closed at USD 23,898/mt overnight, down by USD 87/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,150/mt and the lowest price at USD 23,800/mt. Daily trading volumes were 319 lots, up by 182 lots. Positions were 21,228 lots, down by 120 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 13,775 mt, up 15 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices initially surged to hit a high at USD 24,150/mt, but later fell on lower-than-expected consumer confidence index from the US. Finally, LME tin prices closed at USD 23,898/mt, down USD 87/mt from a day earlier.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March hit the lowest since December 2011, far below 71.8 expected, which weighed down the US equity market, with Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping a 10-session winning streak. The US consumers may be negatively affected by the automatic cutting impact, and were more pessimistic towards outlook for economic growth and employment market. In addition, the New York Fed manufacturing index for March fell from 10.04 to 9.24. However, monthly rate of the industrial output for February rose by 0.7%, far higher than 0.4% expected, despite that the US long-term net capital inflow fell from USD 64.2 billion to 25.7 billion in January.

Market concern over the European debt crisis further grew. Cyprus received EUR 10 billion bailout fund, below the EUR 17 billion needed, and the remaining will get from the depositors. Tax for deposit higher than EUR 0.1 million will be 9.9% and will be 6.75% for deposit lower than EUR 0.1 billion. Corporate tax will be hiked from 10% and 12.5%, and EUR 1.4 billion state-owned assets will go privatization. Cyprus will vote for the proposal on Tuesday. If the proposal fails to be adopted, Cyprus will face severe capital outflow. Besides, the political impasse in Italy remained.

China’s CPC and NPPCC finally held their closing ceremony, and Zhou Xiaochuan is reappointed as president of China’s central bank, which guarantees consistence of China’s monetary policy.

The US dollar index fell by 0.39 to 82.136. The European and US stock markets fell cross the board, and LME base metal market also inched down.

Close attention should be paid to the US Fed interest rate result for March. SMM expects that LME tin prices will try to break through USD 24,000/mt and the Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 153,500-156,500/mt on Monday.