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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-3-12)
Mar 12,2013 10:05CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
LME tin prices will meet strong resistance at USD 23,800-24,000/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 155,000-157,500/mt on Tuesday.

SHANGHAI, Mar. 12 (SMM) – LME tin prices for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,620/mt and closed at USD 23,774/mt, down USD 26/mt from a day earlier, with intraday high at USD 23,774/mt and intraday low at USD 23,500/mt. Daily trading volumes were 101 lots, down 113 lots. Positions were 21,079 lots, down 208 lots. LME tin inventories were 13,575 mt, up 80 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices initially fell but later advanced, with intraday low at USD 23,500/mt. During the European trading hours, LME tin prices regains some losses, but still closed USD 26/mt lower from a day earlier at USD 23,774/mt.

Germany’s exports for January rose by 3.1% YoY, the largest increase since October 2012, which was mainly due to orders from regions out of Europe, suggesting that Germany’s trading began to rebound after experiencing the toughest period in Q4 2012. Italy’s final GDP for Q4 annualized 2.8%, lower than market expectation. Greek annualized final GDP for Q4 has revised from 6.0% to 5.7%. French’s annualized industrial output for January fell by 3.5%, with previous reading of -3.1%. Portugal’s GDP for 2012 fell by 3.2%, with the county stepping into the most severe recession in 37 years.

The weakness in China’s PPI and retail sales announced at the weekend is the major reason behind decline in China’s stock market on Monday. According to the NDRC, China’s CPI for 2013 may be around 3%. However, at last Tuesday's government work report, China aims to control CPI below 3.5%. China's concern over inflation grows, which fuels expectation that Chinese government may tighten liquidity in 2H 2013. In addition, according to data from CAAM, China’s auto sales for February fell by 13.6% YoY in February. YTD sales through February rose by 14.7% YoY. Total sales for 2012 rose by 4.33% YoY. The CAAM predicts that China’s auto sales will grow by 7% in 2013.

The US dollar index fell by 0.05%. Asian stock markets were mixed, while the US equity markets rallied with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting new highs. The European stock markets slightly closed with losses. LME base metal prices closed mixed, but largely rebounded.

Close attention should be paid to Japan’s central bank interest rate meeting. LME tin prices will meet strong resistance at USD 23,800-24,000/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 155,000-157,500/mt on Tuesday.


 

LME tin price
Shanghai tin spot price

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