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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-3-11)
Mar 11,2013 09:48CST
price review forecast
SMM expects that LME tin prices will meet strong resistance at USD 23,800-24,000/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 155,000-157,500/mt on Monday.

SHANGHAI, Mar. 11 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,788/mt and closed at USD 23,800/mt overnight, up by USD 102/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,838/mt and the lowest price at USD 23,650/mt. Daily trading volumes were 214 lots, down by 82 lots. Positions were 21,287 lots, down by 332 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were down by 5 mt to 13,515 mt.

The US nonfarm employment data were strong, boosting base metal prices. Although the US dollar index advanced, LME tin prices still closed USD 102/mt higher at USD 23,800/mt last Friday. However, the concern that the Fed may terminate the stimulus policy weighed on market sentiment.

The US announced better-than-expected nonfarm employment data last Friday. The US non-farm employment payrolls for February were 236,000, bring the unemployment rate to 7.7%, the lowest since late 2008. The data lent momentum for US economic recovery and fueled expectation that the Fed may quit QE. This pushed the US dollar higher and weighed down the base metal prices.

In the euro zone, uncertainties over the Italian parliamentary election grew, and the Fitch cut Italian credit rating to BBB+, weighing down the euro. In addition, Mexico announced last Friday to cut interest rate by 50 basis points to 4%, a historical low and the first time for interest rate cut since July 2009.

In China, residents in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are able to do transactions in China’s stock market, which will increase liquidity in China's stock market. Besides, China began to formulate detailed rules for property regulation.

Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment data for February was lower than market expectation at 7.0%, and the employment payrolls increased sharply by 50,700 in February. Germany’s industrial output annualized at 1.3%, below market expectation.   At the weekend, China’s trade surplus for February was announced at USD 15.3 billion. Affected by holiday factor, China’s CPI for February was 3.2% YoY, the highest in 10 months, and PPI was down 1.6% YoY. The new loans for February were RMB 620 billion, down RMB 90.7 billion YoY.

Boosted by upbeat economic data from the US, the US dollar index hit 82.924, the highest since August 6th, up 0.79%, while euro slipped by 0.8%. Asian stock market staged mixed performance, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continuously hit new high. The European stock market closed 0.8% higher. LME base metal prices closed mixed.

SMM expects that LME tin prices will meet strong resistance at USD 23,800-24,000/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 155,000-157,500/mt on Monday.


LME tin price
Shanghai tin spot price

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