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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-3-4)
Mar 4,2013 10:06CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
SMM expects that LME tin prices will find support at 5-day moving average and lack strong upward momentum, and Shanghai spot tin prices will move in the RMB 156,000-158,000/mt range on Monday.

SHANGHAI, Mar. 4 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,495/mt and closed at USD 23,380/mt last Friday night, down by USD 70/mt from a day earlier, with the intraday high at USD 23,495/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,851/mt. Daily trading volumes were 499 lots, up by 247 lots. Positions were 22,903 lots, down by 51 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were down by 25 mt to 13,575 mt.

LME tin prices moved stably during Friday’s Asian trading hours, but plunged to hit a low at USD 22,851/mt during the European trading hours due to concern over the US automatic spending cut. At the tail of the trading, LME tin prices slightly advanced to close at USD 23,380/mt, down USD 70/mt from a day earlier.

The US University of Michigan final consumer confidence index for February and ISM manufacturing PMI were both better than market expectation. However, the monthly rate of construction permits for January fell by 2.1%, the largest decline since July 2011, and also larger than 0.9% contraction recorded a month earlier, which reflected that economy still recovered slowly. In addition, the US automatic spending cut took effects, which will lower economic growth by 0.5 percentage point and lower employment positions by 750,000. However, Bernanke will continue QE measure, which will offset negative impact from downbeat economic data. The euro zone manufacturing PMI for February finalized at 47.9, slightly higher than market expectation. However, the Fitch warmed to cut credit rating of Italy due to the political uncertainty in Italy.

In China, China’s manufacturing PMI for February was 50.1, down 0.3% MoM. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 1.7% percentage points compared to a month earlier. It is believed that the slight decline in manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI was due to holiday factor, and exerted limited impact on market. Currently, industrial production was relatively stable, and market expectation towards future outlook was relatively optimistic. However, the release of five measures to rein on real estate market fueled wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In addition, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) was held from March 3rd in Beijing, which caught great attention from home and broad.

LME base metal prices largely edged down overnight, and the US dollar index rose by 0.4% to 82.28. The Down Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.25%

Close attentions should be paid to March interest rate by central banks from major economies, and the US February non-farm employment data. SMM expects that LME tin prices will find support at 5-day moving average and lack strong upward momentum, and Shanghai spot tin prices will move in the RMB 156,000-158,000/mt range on Monday.


 

LME tin price
Shanghai tin spot price

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