SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-2-27)

SHANGHAI, Feb. 27 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,075/mt and closed at USD 23,400/mt overnight, up by USD 225/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,400/mt and the lowest price at USD 23,075/mt. Daily trading volumes were 277 lots, down by 54 lots. Positions were 22,719 lots, down by 231 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 13,705 mt, up 55 mt from a day earlier.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's defense for the central bank's massive bond purchasing in testimony boosted market sentiment and offset concern over the Italian presidential election.  LME tin prices stage tepid performance during the Asian trading hours, but advanced above 5-day moving average and closed at USD 23,400/mt, up USD 225/mt from a day earlier.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended for the central bank's massive bond purchasing in testimony before Congress outweighed the market concern over the Italian presidential election. Fed intended to keep its stimulus policies going until hiring improves significantly, giving no hint of whether the central bank may curtail the so-called quantitative easing before the end of this year. Favorite leader of Democratic Party Pier Luigi Bersani and his allies won more votes nationally than any other coalition, but by a slimmer margin than predicted by exit polls. Bersani's 1% slim margin and failure to win majority in the Senate will not be enough to give him control, which means Italy may have a second presidential election, which fueled concern over political stability in the euro zone. In this context, the euro versus the US dollar fell to hit a low at 1.3018.

A slew of positive news was released from the US. The Conference Board consumer confidence index for February was 69.6, higher than expected 62 and previous reading of 58.6. The S&P/Case-Shiller housing price in 20 cities rose by sharply by 6.8% YoY, the highest since July 2006, suggesting that the real estate market is recovering. The new housing sales for January rose surged by 15.6% to 437,000, the larges single month growth in 20 years. Boosted by positive economic data, three major indexes in the US rose steadily.

Close attention should be paid to revised GDP for 4Q from the UK, February confidence index from the euro zone and January durable goods orders from the US. SMM expects LME tin prices will meet resistance at USD 24,000/mt and find support at USD 23,000/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 155,500-158,000/mt in on Wednesday.