SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-2-26)

SHANGHAI, Feb. 26 (SMM) – The HSBC’s flash China manufacturing PMI was 50.4 in February, a 4-month low, but still pointed to expansion. This helped LME aluminum recover losses seen during the Asian session and hit a high of USD 2,055/mt during early European trading hours. Nevertheless, deadlocked spending cuts negotiations in the US and pending Italian general election rekindled market worries. In response, the US dollar index climbed to near 82, sending LME aluminum below USD 2,050/mt. Finally, LME aluminum finished at USD 2,034.3/mt, down 0.63%, extending losses for a sixth straight trading day. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 7,100 mt to 5,157,100 mt.

A firm US dollar will drag aluminum prices down. LME aluminum should meet resistance at USD 2,050/m and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,000-2,050/mt on Tuesday. SHFE 1305 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 14,800/mt, with prices between RMB 14,760-14,860/mt. In spot markets, sluggish consumption against growing oversupply pressure will result in spot discounts of RMB 130-170/mt.