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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-2-18)
Feb 18,2013 10:10CST
price review forecast
SMM expects that LME tin prices will meet resistance at USD 25,200/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 161,000-162,500/mt on Monday.

SHANGHAI, Feb. 18 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 24,801/mt and closed at USD 24,850/mt last Friday, up by USD 35/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,900/mt and the lowest price at USD 24,800/mt. Daily trading volumes were 116 lots, down by 28 lots. Positions were 24,068 lots, down by 43 lots from a day earlier. ME tin inventories were 13,375 mt, up 25 mt from a day earlier.

During Chinese New Year holiday, overseas economic news was mixed. The industrial output in the euro zone for December rose by 0.7%, exceeding 0.3% expected. In addition, the US retail sales for January rose by 0.1% MoM, slightly better than market expectation. At the week ending on February 9th, the US initial jobless claim fell by 27,000 on weekly basis to seasonally-adjusted 341,000, suggesting that employment is improving in the US. The US New York Fed manufacture index for February was 10.04, higher than -2.00 expected and previous reading of 7.78, boosting market confidence. However, the GDP for 4Q in the euro zone contracted by 0.9% YoY and 0.6% MoM, beyond economists’ expectation. GDP contraction in Germany and France was most notable. Besides, the industrial output in January in the US fell by 0.1%, lower than 0.2% expected.

China’s CPI for January fell 0.5 percentage point on a monthly basis, while PPI for January was down 1.6% YoY and up 0.2% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices fell by 1.9% YoY but grew 0.3% MoM. In January, China’s total trade value hit RMB 2.17 trillion, with export value up 25% YoY and import value up 28.8% YoY. With regard to credit, total credit for January hit historical high of RMB 2.54 trillion. Considering current month loans and foreign reserves, liquidity was relatively loose, which fuels expectation that China’s central bank may curb liquidity. In addition, industrial added value for December rose by 10.3% YoY. In general, China’s macro economy is relatively healthy.

Considering the absence of solid economic news and firm US dollar index, base metal prices are expected to be weighed. SMM expects that LME tin prices will meet resistance at USD 25,200/mt, and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 161,000-162,500/mt on Monday.


LME tin price
Shanghai tin spot price

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