SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-1-30)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 30 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 24,500/mt and closed at USD 24,720/mt overnight, up by USD 370/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,720/mt and the lowest price at USD 24,390/mt. Daily trading volumes were 257 lots, down by 81 lots. Positions were 23,333 lots, up by 31 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were 13,135 mt, up 100 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices slightly advanced during the Asian trading hours, and advanced after initial falling to USD 24,400/mt during the Asian trading hours. Finally, LME tin prices closed at USD 24,720/mt, up USD 370/mt from a day earlier.

Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence index for February rose to 5.8, higher than 5.7 expected and previous reading. Although economic growth in Germany was slow, optimistic expectation in the euro zone boosted consumer confidence.

US Consumer Confidence Index was 58.6, far below market expectation and previous reading. ICSC Goldman Sachs chain store annualized sales was +2.0%, slightly down from +3.2% recorded earlier, suggesting that consumption slowed down in the short term. In addition, the pending housing sales for December unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in December, but the S&P/CS20 cities housing price index for November was +5.5%, higher than previous reading of 4.3%.

In China, China’s central bank injected RMB 80 billion liquidity through 7-day reverse purchase, with bidding rate at 3.35%. China’s central bank has been conducting reverse purchase for two consecutive weeks, and market liquidity was relatively ample. In addition, Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that China’s economy will remain stable growth in 2013, and the growth will be around 8.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

LME base metal prices advanced, while the US dollar index fell by 0.21%. New York crude oil futures prices rose by 1.2% to USD 97/barrel. The Dow Jones industrial average rose by 0.52% to hit a new high since October 2007.

The US will announce GDP for 4Q, ADP employment data and January interest rate meeting result, which will affect metal prices. SMM expects that LME tin prices will find support at USD 23,800/mt and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 157,500-160,500/mt on Wednesday.