SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-1-24)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 24 (SMM) -- LME tin for delivery in three months opened at USD 24,632/mt and closed at USD 24,425/mt overnight, down by USD 362/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,850/mt and the lowest price at USD 24,405/mt. Daily trading volumes were 599 lots, up by 255 lots. Positions were 22,714 lots, down by 33 lots from a day earlier. LME tin inventories were down by 20 mt to 13,110 mt.

LME tin prices fluctuated narrowly around USD 24,800/mt during the Asian trading hours, but fell to hit a low at USD 24,405/mt during the European and US trading hours. Finally, LME tin prices closed at USD 24,425/mt, down USD 362/mt from a day earlier.
The US House of Representatives voted to pass the bill to extend the debt ceiling, and "suspend" the debt ceiling into the middle of May, which eased market concern in the short term. IMF cut global economic growth forecast for 2013 from 3.6% to 3.5% and believed that euro zone economy may contract by 0.2%. Its forecast for China’s economic growth for 2013 was 8.2% and 8.5% for 2014.

On the economic data front, the US housing price index for November rose by 0.6%, with annualized rate up 5.6%. The euro zone consumer confidence index for December was -26.5, higher than -26.6 expected and previous reading of -26.9. The UK initial jobless claim for December fell by 12,100 on a monthly basis, which was better than market expectation and was flat from a month earlier. In addition, China’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index for December rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, also better than market expectation. However, GDP growth for 4Q in Spain fell by 1.7% YoY, the lowest in 12 quarters.

In other markets, the US equity markets rallied, with Dow Jones Average up 0.56%, the S&P 500 index advancing 0.17%, and the Nasdaq index rising by 0.41%.

HSBC China’s PMI, euro zone PMI for January and the US initial jobless claim will be announced on Thursday, which will affected base metal price movement. Base metal prices will remain weak momentum before data release. SMM expects that LME tin prices may fall further to USD 23,900/mt and Shanghai tin spot prices will move between RMB 158,000-161,500/mt on Thursday.