SMM Tin Market Daily Review (2013-1-14)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 15 (SMM) – In Shanghai tin market, mainstream traded prices were RMB 160,000-161,000/mt on Monday. Deals for Yunxiang and Nanshan were made around RMB 160,000/mt, while Yunxi and Yunheng were mainly traded at RMB 160,500-161,000/mt. Trading was quiet on the whole. In the afternoon, transactions remained modest, but traders reflected limited resources, combined with the continuous rises in LME tin prices, selling interest was dampened, and transactions were mainly done at RMB 160,500-161,000/mt. Spot tin prices continued to increase due to strong trend in LME tin, but downstream consumption remained unimproved, and domestic spot prices still lacked buying support.

With respect to tin price trends this week, 50% market players believe spot tin prices will continue to rise given the firm LME tin prices. Risk appetite was boosted recently and LME tin prices also presented the biggest gain among base metals. Despite the resistance at USD 25,000/mt, the price gap between LME and domestic tin was still large. Thus, these investors believe even though LME tin prices should meet resistance, domestic spot tin prices will be driven up given the strong expectation for higher prices in domestic market to narrow the price gap with LME tin. Plus the maintenance at Yunnan Tin Group and the travel rush around Chinese New Year holiday which will hamper transportation, tin prices will be resistant to declines.

40% market players expect spot tin prices to remain stable, noting that LME tin prices should come under resistance at USD 25,000/mt, impairing upward impetus for domestic spot prices. Besides, then unimproved demand may also prevent spot tin prices from increasing further. However, the bullish mood in domestic market and the maintenance at Yunnan Tin Group may give certain support to prices, leaving spot tin prices stable.

The remaining 10% market players expect spot tin prices to fall this week, believing that domestic spot prices will be dragged down by the weak demand if LME tin prices fail to break through the resistance at USD 25,000/mt.