SMM Copper Market Morning Review (2013-1-15)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 15 (SMM) – Copper markets remained weak Monday. Goldman Sachs was bullish over copper futures but cut its 6 and 12-month outlook on commodities to neutral, which caused US equity markets to swing between gains and losses. Apple shares slipped by 3.6% after the company reduced iPhone5 production and dragged the Nasdaq Composite Index down by 0.26%. The US President Obama said at the press conference that he will try to slash spending, but investors generally took a wait-and-see stance before Bernanke made a speech for concerns that the Fed may adjust loose monetary measures. In response, LME copper prices trended down and dipped to a low of USD 7,990/mt before finally ending at USD 8,007/mt. However, it was worth noting that copper prices responded little to the recently rising US dollar, and that copper prices still moved around their low-end price of previous trading range following declines. This meant that once gaining support at lows, copper prices will return to earlier highs, so investors should not be too pessimistic.

Bernanke's speech failed to yield any good results and can not lift commodity markets, while Obama explicitly rejected to negotiate the debt ceiling issue. But with effective support at USD 8,000/mt over the short term, LME copper prices will move between USD 8,000-8,080/mt during Tuesday's Asian trading session. Chinese stock markets will suffer great pressure at highs. SHFE copper prices will start down and test support at RMB 58,000/mt, and SHFE 1304 copper contract will hover in the RMB 58,000-58,500/mt range. Shanghai spot copper offers are estimated between premiums of positive RMB 0-110/mt versus SHFE 1301 copper contract.