SMM Nickel Price Forecast (Jan. 14-18)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Nickel Price Forecast (Jan. 14-18)

Price Review & Forecast 02:52:22PM Jan 14, 2013 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jan. 14 (SMM) -- According to data from China Customs, China’s trade surplus for December was USD 31.62 billion, much higher than the expected RMB 19.7 and last month’s USD 19.6 billion. China’s central bank injected RMB 128 billion in liquidity into markets through reverse repurchase operations, which greatly boost market confidence. In the US, last Thursday’s initial jobless claims improved, which caused the US dollar index to fall and base metal prices to advance. The Consumer Confidence Index in Germany showed improvement, while Spanish and Italian bond auctions were successful, with debt yields for both countries falling sharply. Spain successfully sold EUR 5.8 billion in medium-term and long-term bonds, exceeding the EUR 5 billion level and a strong sign that market confidence was recovering. Although technical indicators are weak, the LME nickel K chart suggests LME nickel prices are poised to surge. However, if LME nickel inventories continue to grow, LME nickel prices will meet increasing resistance.

 

In China’s domestic markets, transactions are expected to remain strong in the coming week. Supply of nickel is relatively tight, however, since some goods are locked in due to arbitrage transactions, but SMM believes that this situation will not last. Recovered demand will continue to push up spot prices, which will also improve the domestic/LME nickel price ratio.
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SMM Nickel Price Forecast (Jan. 14-18)

Price Review & Forecast 02:52:22PM Jan 14, 2013 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jan. 14 (SMM) -- According to data from China Customs, China’s trade surplus for December was USD 31.62 billion, much higher than the expected RMB 19.7 and last month’s USD 19.6 billion. China’s central bank injected RMB 128 billion in liquidity into markets through reverse repurchase operations, which greatly boost market confidence. In the US, last Thursday’s initial jobless claims improved, which caused the US dollar index to fall and base metal prices to advance. The Consumer Confidence Index in Germany showed improvement, while Spanish and Italian bond auctions were successful, with debt yields for both countries falling sharply. Spain successfully sold EUR 5.8 billion in medium-term and long-term bonds, exceeding the EUR 5 billion level and a strong sign that market confidence was recovering. Although technical indicators are weak, the LME nickel K chart suggests LME nickel prices are poised to surge. However, if LME nickel inventories continue to grow, LME nickel prices will meet increasing resistance.

 

In China’s domestic markets, transactions are expected to remain strong in the coming week. Supply of nickel is relatively tight, however, since some goods are locked in due to arbitrage transactions, but SMM believes that this situation will not last. Recovered demand will continue to push up spot prices, which will also improve the domestic/LME nickel price ratio.